Tags
(Not satire – it’s the UK today)
Electoral strategists from all parties are concerned about one thing and one thing only. How their party can win the next election.
And although you won’t hear them admitting it, Labour strategists will have been surprisingly happy with the election result in Eastleigh yesterday.
Come off it Tom. Labour came 4th FFS!
I know I know – but their reasoning goes something like this.
To win an overall majority at the next general election, Labour need three things to happen.
First of all they need the Liberal Democrat vote to collapse in their favour in Lib Dem/Labour marginals.
But secondly, they conversely need the Liberal Democrat vote to hold up in Lib Dem/Tory marginals.
Thirdly, they need to be doing well enough to win at least a few Tory/Labour marginals.
If all three of those things happen – then Labour will be set to win a majority of seats in the House of Commons at the next general election.
Last night was a big indicator that all three of those things for the Labour dream scenario might be happening.
There is already plenty of evidence to show the Liberal Democrat vote in LibDem/Labour marginals is collapsing in Labour’s favour.
And last night’s result in Eastleigh shows the LibDem vote is holding up well in LibDem/Tory marginals.
Also, the recent Corby by-election shows Labour is in line to take some seats from the Tories in Labour/Tory marginals.
And although Labour might in public berate the spectacular rise of UKIP – who despite their success yesterday are unlikely to win any seats at a general election and look set to split the Tory vote – it is in reality the icing on the electoral strategy cake for Labour.
All of which means there may have been some surreptitious popping of champagne corks by Labour strategists last night.
.
Related articles by Tom Pride:
Eastleigh by-election – government candidate expected to beat government candidate in close contest with government candidate
Missing Tory Eastleigh by-election candidate Maria Hutchings turns up at US auction
Fresh outbreak of Foot-in-Mouth in Eastleigh as attempts to quarantine Tory candidate fail
Lib Dems have a cunning plan to win Eastleigh. They’ve abandoned Nick Clegg.
Liberal Democrat to stand for far-right English Democrats in Eastleigh by-election
Zoologists – Vince Cable and Ed Balls ready to mate soon
UKIP candidate – UK dinners flooded by criminal gangs of eastern European horses
Revealed! Nick Clegg’s secret love going back to his student days
.
Please feel free to comment – you don’t need to register and I’m extremely minimal with the moderating – so please go ahead.
.
By the way, if you click on any of these buttons below, you’ll be doing me a favour by sharing this article with other people. Thanks:
Pride's Purge 
Pingback: Sshh! Don't say it out loud. But the biggest winner in the election yesterday was - Labour | Welfare, Disability, Politics and People's Right's | Scoop.it
You have imprinted here, Tom, my vague thoughts I was gathering myself this morning, upon hearing the results.
I was very gratified to see how badly the tory woman performed, unsurprisingly given the combination of the facts that:
a) she was caMoron’s representative who caMoron tried to hide from view.
b) her opinions sounded more like those of a U-kipper. Farage would have been mighty jealous.
I was not surprised that the Fib-dumbs actually won, but then that victory only by a narrow margin. It was, afterall, their playing field.
Labour did better than I thought; probably better than Ed M thought, if the truth be known.
Thus, short of miracles, this was the best of a bad job that socialists could expect.
LikeLike
The one thing Nick Clegg championed, was proportional representation.
The number of props NOT voting for a particular party, is the central issue to our countries political future.
Parties are still carving lumps off one another on key “perception sound bites” but the fact remains, each party is sharpening their axe to win popular favour from the hapless electorate.
Yet their policies & pledges and likely outcomes are all starting to sound the same.
Despite what they tell us that makes them different.
the fact we allow 10% share of the population to ultimately choose politicians that influence the lives of the remaining 90% sends a clears signal to politicians.
Like a good bookmaker, the electoral strategists make a living off of “mug punters”..
A country full of mugs is not somewhere I want to live.
LikeLike
“The one thing Nick Clegg championed, was proportional representation.” ~~@Drew.
To say he ‘championed’ it is overstating the case somewhat. It was one of his ‘cledges’, nothing more. In other words, a load of vote winning cobblers.
LikeLike
Thank goodness for a Tom Pride analysis. Listening to the MSM, I thought I’d be transported into a parallel universe in which Labour was the biggest loser of the night.
LikeLike
Reblogged this on The Greater Fool.
LikeLike
I know. And I didn’t even have to mention these statistics from Eastleigh: the Lib Dems were 15% down from the last election, the Tories 14% down and Labour: 0.2% up.
LikeLike
Reblogged this on HUMAN RIGHTS & POLITICAL JOURNAL.
LikeLike
Great blog – my friend Isobel W posted this in a FB political page, so I’ll follow. Keep u
p the good work
LikeLike
Pingback: Two election results from yesterday the Tories don’t want you to know about | Pride's Purge