(not satire – it’s the UK press!)
Just about everybody in the press from the BBC to the Guardian to the Daily Telegraph has been talking about how Labour is 3 points behind the Tories in the latest opinion poll.
Actually, it’s not true.
The latest opinion poll – not reported in the mainstream press – has Labour 3 points ahead of the Tories.
But of course that doesn’t fit the narrative, does it?
Facts often don’t.
.
N.B. Most opinion polls have a margin of error of 3% points – which would put the two parties neck and neck. However, a look at all the most recent opinion polls indicates Labour with a small lead, and a slightly bigger lead in marginal constituencies.
Please feel free to comment.
Pride's Purge 
My Poll as at last Sunday Cons/Lab 33% – UKIP 19% – LibDems 7% – Others/Don’t knows 8%
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Reblogged this on sdbast.
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“Most opinion polls have a margin of error of 3% points – which would put the two parties neck and neck.”
…or Labour 6% ahead.
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i cant understand what the point of this though its just an exercise in wishful thinking and self delusion.
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Reblogged this on gingerblokeblog.
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“…the most recent opinion polls indicates Labour with a small lead, and a slightly bigger lead in marginal constituencies.”
Could you post a link to the marginal constituency polls you referred to? Thank you.
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Scotland is familiar with this sort of treatment by the MSM. Pleased to see the “turncoats” getting a bit of their own medicine.
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I studiously avoid being accosted by types with clipboards, but if I were I would tell them that my intention is to vote Tory. Mine is a very marginal seat and in reality I will be voting Labour to help unseat the Tory incumbent. Should anyone be so accosted by survey people, tell them you’re voting Tory, hopefully Camoron and Gideot won’t put in all that much effort prior to May should they think they’ll cakewalk it. My dream: a minority Labour government in coalition with the Green Party, Plaid Cymru and the SNP.
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@FinkFurst http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2014/11/labour-ahead-tory-seats-much/
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anybody attacked so viciously cant be useless.
if he is so useless why do they fear him so much.
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Pete – Your dream is in fact a likely outcome, though Nicola Sturgeon has said that SNP cooperation with Labour would be on a case-by-case basis, not a coalition. Unlike Clegg, Sturgeon is a smart politician, and she is also somewhere near being principled!
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@FinkFurst – you clearly haven’t seen my reply to you here (and if you have seen it and you’re still coming out with these petty attempts to discredit me, then you’re thicker than even I thought you were):
In a nutshell – you need to aim a lot higher with your silly criticisms of me.
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Thanks for the link, but that’s just the Conservative constituency ‘defence list’, not all marginal constituencies. It’s primarily looking at the effect of the UKIP rise, and it’s only 12 seats anyway. We also need polls in the Labour defence list to get a more balanced picture, and many of these are in Scotland (mine included) and they are looking very bad for Labour.
[Here’s more polling of marginals of all different types – Lib Dem/Tory, Tory/Lab, Lib Dem/Lab. They all more or less show the same (polling is too complicated to really simplify) – Labour with an approximate average 5% lead over the Tories:
http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2014/10/back-con-lab-battleground/
http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2014/09/liberal-democrat-battleground/
http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2014/08/swing-labour-extends-deeper-tory-territory/
http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2014/07/con-lab-battleground-swing-tories-drops-ukip-pick-labour-votes/
http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2014/07/liberal-democrat-labour-battleground/
http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2014/06/conservative-lib-dem-battleground/ ] -TOM
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And much of the Green argument is way ahead of that from the 4 ‘most popular’ parties. As for all the bribes now appearing to con us group by group, who’s going to pay for the final massive debt? Surely not the low paid and pensioners again?
As for Pete’s advice to pretend to vote Tory, I’d probably vote for any party proposing 95% tax on any income over £200k!
Fancy a Monster Raving Loony MP anyone? ….. Oh, sorry. they’re already in charge on the 5 year ticket they fixed.
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polls can NOT be trusted – rigged…and sometimes just invented trash to scare and intimidate.
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nuggy – Look at the disastrous polls about him! You can argue that they have no substance, but I can assure you that his colleagues are looking at them, and they’re scared stiff!
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yes he pools almost exactly the same as Cameron does..
hardly disastrous.thatcher was never that popular personally it dident stop her winning.
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No nuggy, both your arguments are factually wrong.
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if you read it he says the polls on the Labour defense list.
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No nuggy, you’re wrong once again. Neither Tom nor Ashcroft mentioned the Labour defence list.
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you haven’t bothered to read it have you.
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None of these polls feature any Scottish constituencies. Why?
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Yes I have, and it doesn’t even mention the Labour defence list. I’ll tell you what, why don’t you copy post the part of the report that does……
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@FinkFurst I suppose that’s because until recently nobody thought the results in Scotland would be interesting. I expect that’s all changed now and we’ll see a lot more polls from Scotland – hopefully.
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We know that the Lib-Dems are out of the running the Conservatives are shitting bricks and Labour have a leader who could organise a piss up in a brewery for alcoholics demanding beer. That leave UKIP and the only way they will get any power is in coalition with either Labour or the current corrupt Conservatives, which would mean 5 more years of George Iain Duncan Smith. Unless the useless cunt loses his seat.
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because we don’t give a fuck what Scotland thinks
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…and Scotland obviously doesn’t give a fuck what the Tories think, but we still have to suffer from it!
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yes ha ha ha.
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Ah… so there are some which are true and some which are false, and some which are ‘alternative’. Is 24=110 one of the latter category?
[(sigh) The whole discussion about how many Labour ministers are attacking Miliband is the false narrative. The alternative (much more interesting) narrative which you refuse to discuss is this: “Why is the Observer employing a Mail journalist to smear Ed Miliband?” and “Why is the MSM ignoring the polls that don’t fit their narrative?”] -TOM
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In a strange way I like that you are what it says on the tin!
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Pingback: Labour is actually three points AHEAD of the Tories – Pride’s Purge | Vox Political
Hey Tom, try this argument for size…
You cite four different polls which have much the same conclusion and tell your readers – “Actually, it’s not true.”
Then you cite one other poll with an opposing conclusion which suits a different narrative and call it a “fact”.
In what way is this conceptually any different from the establishment false narratives you claim to oppose?
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@FinkFurst – what are you blabbering on about? None of the polls have Labour 3 points behind. Only one did – which is the one reported by the press. Because the false narrative – which you have fallen hook line and sinker for – is that there is a leadership crisis in Labour to distract from the real one in the Tories.
The fact is that the polls have consistently shown a Labour lead – albeit a diminishing one.
Now I’m going to stop answering your questions. All you are doing is desperately trolling for things to criticise me with. No intelligent discussion to be found here. Boring.
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This is not true…. As Tom Pride correctly points out, Labour are in fact 3 points well ahead of the Tourists… but Labour are still lagging 3 points behind UKIP which makes UKIP precisely 6 points ahead of the Eggheads…. You must stick to the facts.
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“he pools almost the same as Cameron does…” Yes, nuggy, that is so, but Milibutty wears more colourful swimming trunks than Cameron 🙂
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Don’t bother. Tom Pride is cut from a much superior roll of cloth than you, clothears.
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(Sigh) The point is that NONE of the polls are either true or false, they’re just transient opinions. You can pick and choose from them to support whichever narrative you’ve previously decided to support, as you and the different sides of mainstream media keep on doing.
How do you decide what is a “fact” and what is “not true”? That’s a very serious question. Do you understand that many of your readers decide based on what YOU tell them? Do you think that places any responsibility on you to try to be objective?
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If you vote for Alex Salmon you will get Nigel Farage…. it’s all about the cut of the kilt.
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There’s YOUR false narrative in a nutshell! He isn’t a Mail journalist, and why have you decided that an apparently credible account is a “smear”? Your ONLY argument that it’s a smear (i.e. 20 out of 24) was wrong!
[FinkFurst – “Daniel Boffey used to write exactly the same kind of political smear articles for the Mail on Sunday.”
Which part of that isn’t true?
Now enough of your transparent attempts to support your biased MSM hack friends. Although I can’t blame you for trying considering you are a journalist and an SNP activist. ] -TOM
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Scotland’s Independence Party will get their revenge next May when they boycott all of the 42 Labour candidates in Scotland, so Milibutty had better get his kilt on quick and start blowing his bagpipes North of The Border and marching to the tune of “When Mili Comes Marching Home Hurrah Hurrah…..” 🙂
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Actually I think the Tories are the ‘Loony Raving Monster’ party.
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If for instance there are 4 recent polls putting Labour ahead and only 1 putting behind, then why not say that and provide the evidence? Isn’t that a more powerful argument than unsubstantiated rhetoric about one poll being true and another not true?
Or is it because the 4 polls versus the 1 might be the other way around next week…?
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tomfooltony – You’re living up to your name again!
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I’m not sure what you mean by MSM. I googled it but I’m none the wiser. The only political reference I could find is the MSM party in Mauritius! Can you explain?
Yes he WAS a Mail journalist a few years ago, but I gather he’s worked for the Guardian/Observer for several years. I think this movement is normal for most journalists. Therefore he is isn’t a Mail journalist as you described him.
Mind you, I must admit I am being a bit a of a pedantic and boring tit, questioning every single word you write like this. Sorry about that.
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tune
we vote for 2 parliaments in scotland, which 1 do you mean?
AS is no longer FM ( well almost not) NS will be…http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-30011425 ….the WM parl will certainly be hung…the likely outcome is that the SNP will hold the bal of power, and don’t forget PCymru, Greens et al..likely ukip tory in a very weak and tempestuous coalition….imv people should turn out en mass and vote tactically to keep right wing parties out of office…
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Reblogged this on Beastrabban’s Weblog.
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The 3% margin goes both ways so labour are in reality anywhere between neck and neck and 6% ahead. Come on peoples, let’s stuff ’em good and proper.
[Actually, unfortunately not. If there are two surveys, both with a margin of error of 3% points, one shows a 3 point lead for the Tories and the other shows a 3 point lead for Labour, that suggests the parties are neck and neck. For Labour to be on 6% would mean the IPSOS/MORI poll would have to have an MOE of 9%. Which it doesn’t. Nationally, at the moment, the Tories and Labour are neck and neck. However, Labour is ahead in the marginals – which is where the next election will be won or lost. So I still think Labour is on course to be the largest party at the next election. However, they should be much further ahead if they want to be sure things don’t change in the next 6 months] -TOM
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By the way, keep up the good work Tom, a breath of fresh air every day in this country of sleaze and lies. Thanks
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FinkFurst – your ignorance is showing yet again. I am looking at the trends in a lot of polls together. The polls from different companies have been very consistent for around 3 full years now – they all show a slowly narrowing Labour lead, but with a larger Labour lead in marginals. It’s all about the trends.
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FinkFurst – yet more ignorance. 3 years of consistent results from surveying is not the same as one week’s worth. I hope you were not a scientist as you claim because you clearly have no idea about statistics. You sound much more like a party activist and a journalist to me. Which of course we all know you are.
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“3 years of consistent results from surveying is not the same as one week’s worth.”
True, but how is that relevant here? The poll you say is “not true” is from Ipsos Mori. They’re pretty experienced, aren’t they?
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You’re probably right about that and I’m glad your opinion is becoming more rational, but that isn’t what you said in your blogpost. You said that the Ipsos Mori poll is “not true” and the YouGov poll is a fact. You failed to justify either.
[Yet again, in your mad obsessive headlong rush to condemn me, you’ve got it wrong again.
I wrote the IPSOS/MORI one isn’t true because it’s not the ‘latest one’. That’s a fact. The press lied. The YouGov was in fact “the latest one” but was ignored by the press because it didn’t fit their agenda. You can’t argue with the the relative dates of the YouGov and IPSOS/MORI polls – they are indisputable facts. I then said taking the two latest polls together would put the two parties neck and neck – one with the Tories 3 points ahead and one with labour 3 points ahead. With the knowledge that polls have an MOE of 3 % and taking other recent polls into account – that also suggests the two parties are neck and neck. Am I going too fast for you? Looking at the longer term trends, it shows Labour with a narrow lead nationally and a slightly larger lead in the marginals (around 5% on average). Those are the facts – as not reported by any of the mainstream press. Read the blogpost again, without your journalist/party activist head on this time – and you’ll see that’s exactly what I wrote. You are blinded by your arrogant presumption that I am a hack writing from a simplistic position of “supporting Ed Miliband”. You’re showing yourself up to be a partisan idiot FinkFurst. You need to aim your criticisms of me a lot lot higher.]-TOM
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@FinkFurst – 2 years of endlessly accusing me of being a journalist and a party activist is boring – and factually wrong – and adds nothing to the discussion. So stop with the boring attempts to discredit me, and start discussing the real meaning of the blogposts. This site should be about UK politics – not about me.
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“I wrote the IPSOS/MORI one isn’t true because it’s not the ‘latest one’.”
Ah, that must be a new definition of “true” that I haven’t heard about. Sorry.
[This ridiculous comment is a kind of a final straw for me. You are now questioning the fact that Saturday comes after Friday as a ‘new definition of true’? The IPSOS/MORI poll was done a day before the YouGov poll so it is untrue for the press to say it was the latest poll. The press simply ignored the latest poll – the YouGov poll – because it didn’t fit their agenda by having a Labour lead. That’s a very simple fact. So I say it’s a final straw because I can see you are simply spam trolling – attacking everything no matter how ridiculous your argument is in order to clog up this site with negative comments just to try and discredit it. That’s why I am putting you on moderation until you can convince me you are willing to make sensible comments and have sensible discussions]-TOM
I think you meant to say neck and neck OR Labour being 6% ahead (or somewhere in between), as I pointed out in my first post, as did Guinnessgary.
[If there are two surveys, both with a margin of error of 3% points, one shows a 3 point lead for the Tories and the other shows a 3 point lead for Labour, that suggests the parties are neck and neck. For Labour to be on 6% would mean the IPSOS/MORI poll would have to have an MOE of 9%. I think this basic error shows you claerly are not a scientist.]
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Reblogged this on stewilko's Blog and commented:
When I awoke this morning and read these dubious headings from the press I was a little sceptical. Previously over the many months labour heald a lead within all polls. Then we see the heading such as these, Labour 3 points behind the Tories. We have witnessed over the past four, I believe, the most savage, brutal and unethical attacks on the most vulnerable within our society. This Conservative lead government have without doubt torn up civil rights, human rights and any other legislation wich got in their way. I believe they will, I mean Cameron, Osborne, Duncan (block head, lying scumbag) Smith, MCvey. Hopefully, with the following investigations, go down in history for being the worst government these Island have ever witnessed. 2015, I hope a government will be elected that have listened to the people of the UK. More so, the poorest, who have been ripped apart byway of the most savages of cuts. The lies from Atos, Smith, Osborne, MCveyand so on. Rant over
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Finkfurt IS a spambot troller, too right, yes, well discerned, as we all know only too well. He (or she) should not be allowed to clog up this site, either to discredit the site itself, or Tom Pride himself, or just to piss off all the other contributors with his useless spambot trolling.
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snp conference salmonds farewell speech… http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hZ6mUDQYRmE#t=323
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