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(not satire)

I love opinion polls* so I make no apologies for this bit of polling geekery – if you don’t like the geeky bits just skip to the conclusion which is actually quite interesting.

YouGov have been doing daily political polling for some years now and like all polling companies they use small samples which are weighted to produce pretty reliable indications of national voter intention.

However, because the samples are relatively small it’s not usually reliable to take information from the small sub-samples which are divided into age, sex, region, even which newspaper you read etc etc.

That being said, over time the samples become more reliable if they show an overall trend.

It’s now probably long enough to say that since the last budget there has been a significant strengthening of support for Labour amongst the over-60s – a group which has been historically pro-Tory for many years.

Labour is now regularly around 10% points clear of the Tories amongst over-60s – something which is very significant as this group are the most reliable voters and have been a bedrock of support for the Tories since time immemorial.

Maybe we should stop referring to the ‘blue-rinse brigade’ and start referring to the ‘red-rinse brigade’ instead?


*Before anyone makes any comments about polls being manipulated or pointless because they use too small samples – please read this first:

Popular misconceptions about opinion polls


Other articles by Tom Pride:

Tory Modernisers Vow To Drag Party Into 19th Century

Full-scale codger cull set to get government go-ahead

Controversial urine extraction method given go-ahead by government

Genealogists Confirm David Cameron Is A Bastard


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